Tuesday, 30 April 2013

Enormous risk described.

A new scientific article in the Chinese Science Bulletin talks of there being a high risk of a continuing and severe outbreak of H7N9 in the future. It extrapolates from the first 91 cases (today's case count is at 128), using a mathematical formula that could be heavily influenced by the appearance of decent numbers of mild cases - should testing find mild cases of course. 

Given the variation seen among many aspects of the different influenza viruses of recent years, I'm inclined to maintain my wait-and-see attitude a little longer before stocking the pantry.