Sunday, 2 March 2014

Guangzhou reopens live poultry markets: Good idea or too soon?

Curve of H7N9 human cases in the two most hard-hit
Provinces in China Zhejiang and Guangdong.
Hangzhou shut its poultry markets 24-Jan.  Guangzhou shut
its markets 15-Feb. Similar rate of cases in Wave 2 of H7N9.
The difference? Zhejiang's markets remain closed.
Well, that seemed like a very quick 2-weeks. But it is 2-weeks (see my earlier post when the markets shut) and a lot of financial hardship for the local poultry industry. They will breath a sigh of relief as the chickens start moving through the crowded markets once more.
With new H7N9 human case announcements reduced to zero for the past 2 nights (my time), we'll now get a look at what happens when a market gets restocked after the region it serviced has had a transmission interruption, and the weather moves towards Spring and its subtropical rainy season. Will the market be restocked from virus-positive farms? Is the weather still conducive to maximising H7N9's chances of being picked up by humans? Will surveillance methods have changed at the markets in Guangzhou? 
"..poultry traders are required to clean their stalls every day, carry out a thorough sterilization once a week and close business one day a month."                                                                                   Shanghai Daily.
It is like watching an experiment played out in real-time. Without the Aims. Or hypotheses. Or controls. Or stuff.

h/t to @Potrblog as my source for this article.

Related links...
  1. Zhejiang province leads the way in H7N9 cases and their decline 3-weeks after market closures...
    http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/zhejiang-province-leads-way-in-case.html
  2. Guangzhou reopens live poultry markets
  3. http://www.shanghaidaily.com/national/Guangzhou-reopens-live-poultry-markets/shdaily.shtml
  4. China.today Guangdong Province weather
  5. Shenzen shopper weather