Friday, 11 April 2014

Update on Ebola virus disease (EVD) case accumulation chart with new WHO African Regional Office data...[UPDATED].

UPDATED with 2 Sierra Leone probable deaths.
Click on image to enlarge
Not much of a change to be seen with the data from WHO following that from UNICEF yesterday.

No Species Zaire ebolavirus cases have been confirmed in Sierra Leone nor any in Mali (6 suspected cases however; 2 other samples tested negative) or elsewhere. 


Click on image to enlarge.
Maps purchased from maptorian and adapted by VDU
EVD cases are still restricted to Guinea and Liberia and all cases remain linked to infections in Guinea. 

As I understood the recent WHO virtual press conference, because the index case was known, the transmission chain of contacts is mostly already under observation. While Ebola virus disease (EVD) has a grisly progression, once experts are in place to help track, test and educate, with the help of local and international governments, the spread of EVD can be contained. 

But it will still take time to be sure the outbreak has been contained; 2 full incubation periods worth of time.[3] As the maximum incubation period is 21-days (2-21 days being the full range), you start to see why the WHO speaks in terms of "months" [2,3] before the outbreak can be considered over. And that clock starts sometime around the end of the last case's disease onset I'd guess.
“We fully expect to be engaged in this outbreak for another two, three, four months”
Dr Kenji Fukuda, WHO[3]

So as the outbreak comes under control, as seems to be the case, we should pay attention to when new cases stop appearing. Then it becomes about waiting until everyone can safely say there are no new cases.


The most recent case had an onset of illness on 08-April-2014.

Sources...
  1. WHO-AFRO Ebola virus disease, West Africa (Situation as of 10 April 2014)http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-programmes/dpc/epidemic-a-pandemic-alert-and-response/outbreak-news/4093-ebola-virus-disease-west-africa-10-april-2014.html
  2. Ebola expected to terrorise West Africa for ‘months’–WHO - Euronewshttp://www.euronews.com/2014/04/09/ebola-expected-to-terrorise-west-africa-for-months-who/
  3. Officials Say Ebola Outbreak Could Last Months - Timehttp://time.com/54299/officials-say-ebola-outbreak-could-last-months/