Thursday, 1 May 2014

H5N1 versus H7N9...

Green bars include surviving and fatal H5N1 laboratory-
confirmed cases in humans. The green "mountain" (area 
under the curve) is the accumulating tally of total cases. 
The red area-under-the-curve is the accumulating tally of 
fatal cases. The current total H7N9 cases is shown as a 
horizontal dashed blue line.
Click on image to enlarge.

This remains a kind of a pointless exercise. As I noted when I posted this first time back in February, but since I'm preparing some lectures I thought I'd post the latest version anyway.

These avian influenza A(H5N1) virus numbers have been curated since 2003 when the World Health Organization started an official tally. To that chart I've added where the current total number of laboratory confirmed human cases of infection by avian influenza A(H7N9) virus sits on the accumulating case tally (the green area-under-the-curve line). This blue dashed line highlights what we've heard before; H7N9 cases are piling up faster than H5N1 cases did. 

From 2003 it took H5N1 human cases nearly 6-years to reach the 430'ish mark; it's taken H7N9 about 61 weeks.

Sources...

  1. Monthly risk assessment summary |  Influenza at the Human-Animal Interface
    http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/HAI_Risk_Assessment/en/