Sunday, 4 May 2014

MERS-CoV by month, now with added camels and hospital outbreaks...

Weekly case tallies for 20012-4 (blue-surviving 
and fatal cases; red-fatal cases). Also indicated 
are the season in which camels give birth (I've
noted "birthdays" because it seems to be 1-year

old or older camels that are usually positive for
MERS-CoV. Past and future Hajj pilgrimage 

dates are also shown as is 1 of several
large camel events in the KSA.
Click on image to enlarge.
While the World Health Organization is yet to produce confirmed case data for the majority of the MERS-CoV outbreaks' biggest month, some of those data and extra information are being provided by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health v2.0. 

And it's very welcome and much appreciated. There still remain some vagaries and data gaps that make consistency an issue. But further information is not forthcoming so let look at some charts of what we have. 

For now, we can see in the daily graph, 4-days into May, that cases are still being announced but at what looks like a slower rate. We are seeing cases reported with a lag of approximately a week from when they became ill/were hospitalised (when those dates are present).

A plot of cases per day. Many (?most) are based on dates of reporting although
more dates of illness onset have emerged lately and I am working through them. This means that the specific peaks may chop and change a little as dates are assigned. Nonetheless, the trend seems to be one of decreasing numbers per day and
the cumulative average may be suggesting a peaked for this KSA outbreak.
Click on image to enlarge.