Sunday, 24 April 2016

Colombia Zika virus report, Week No. 15...

The latest epidemiological report, which includes data on Zika virus disease (ZVD; 10APR2016-16APR2016), has been produced by the Colombian National Institute for Health team.[1]

Graph No.1. The cumulative curve of confirmed ZVD cases 
(green circles, left-hand axis) and the change in confirmed ZVD case 
numbers when compared to the preceding week's total 
(green bars, right-hand axis). Data from [1]. 
Click on graph to enlarge.

Graph No. 1 shows that zero new laboratory confirmed cases of ZVD reported this week. The total holds steady at 3,292 or 5% of all the clinically suspected Zika virus (ZIKV) detections. I wonder if this is further support for a theory that there is a lag in laboratory reporting in Colombia, or was there was no testing conducted (seems unlikely)?
Graph No.2. The cumulative curve of suspectedZVD cases
(pink circles, left-hand axis) and the change in suspected ZVD case
numbers when compared to the preceding week's total 
(red bars, right-hand axis). Data from [1]. 
Click on graph to enlarge.
Graph No. 2 shows the change in suspected cases. Most of these are not laboratory confirmed, but (I'm presuming here) include those that were from Graph No. 1. The suspected ZVD cases keep accumulating - another 3,059.
Graph No.3. The cumulative curve of confirmed ZIKV infections 
(lilac circles, left-hand axis) and the change in confirmed ZIKV infection 
numbers when compared to the preceding week's total 
(purple bars, right-hand axis). Now added the reported umber of microcephaly cases 
confirmed as ZIKV infected (yellow bars, right-hand axis). To account for adjustments 
that take cases away when there is no weekly case growth, a negative 
value - the y-axes now allow for negative values. Data from [1]. 
Click on graph to enlarge.
Graph No. 3 shows that to Week No. 15, 11,099 suspected and 1,703 confirmed ZIKV infections have been identified in pregnant women. Last week there were 1,706 confirmed diagnoses so the purple bar for this week strays into negative territory (-3 compared to last week).

As of this report, 4 (increased by 2 from last week) live births have been diagnosed with microcephaly/central nervous system disorders and were reported as being ZIKV positive; 22 (up from 15) other microcephaly diagnoses are under investigation.[1]

References...
  1. http://www.ins.gov.co/boletin-epidemiologico/Boletn%20Epidemiolgico/2016%20Boletin%20epidemiologico%20semana%2015.pdf