Monday, 25 April 2016

Did Zika virus detections peak in Colombia during Week #3 2016?

Does the graph below, taken from the Colombian Ministry of Health's latest (Week No. 15) epidemiological report, signal that Zika virus detections (red bars; laboratory confirmed) peaked in Week No.3 of January-2016?

Excerpted from [1].
If it does, then we should add to the hypothetical list [2] of reasons why there is not yet any surge of microcephaly and central nervous system disorder diagnoses (M&CD) in Colombia - the country with the second biggest reported number of Zika virus detections - that we may have to wait for at least 184 days from Week No.3 (give-or-take, obviously). 

In other words, around Week No.29 we may see an equivalent surge in M&CD diagnoses in Colombia....all other things being equal between the two countries (which they likley are not) and if Zika virus is the driving cause of M&CD. This graph comes from Week No.15.

Why 184 days? Only because that was the length of time between when Brazil first reported local (autochthonous) transmission of Zika virus and its first report of the possibly linked M&CD surge (in which it bundling 141 cases up in one announcement).[3] 

Yeah, it's a flexible number to be sure but it is what it is, and it's more solid than some of the data flying around.

Worth watching anyway.