Tuesday, 21 February 2017

H7N9 virus in humans in China: just how big is this?

...I don't really know, but a lot bigger than I thought when I was tinkering with the numbers for the last post (which has since been updated by the way). 

As far as I can make out - the tally could be at 1,378 cases - that dwarfs any of the previous 4 waves of H7N9. You can see that below in the crudely estimated monthly tallies.

Dwarfs by quite a lot. 

Coming into this season there were about 808 human cases, so there could have been as many as 570 cases this season.



 As you may know, I follow FluTracker's line list for my H7N9 data.[1] Sadly, they recently lost the ability to list individual cases when those details mounted up too quickly and without enough clarity. 

The above is a very crude graph mainly because it is unclear whether any of the numbers up until December were reported by the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection (CHP) in any of their recent posts. 

It is quite possible I'm up to 150 cases over in my count - but even so, 1,222 recently reported by the WHO [1] is still a big season.

Hopefully we'll find out when the next authority issues a total. 

I've updated my other graphs on the static page (click on the Avian Influenza|H7N9 tab above or here)

References...

  1. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h7n9-outbreak-tracking/143874-flutrackers-2013-17-human-case-list-of-provincial-ministry-of-health-government-confirmed-influenza-a-h7n9-cases-with-links?t=202713
  2. http://www.who.int/csr/don/20-february-2017-ah7n9-china/en/