tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-23242977310390411972024-03-14T08:15:40.689+10:00VDU's blogThe Virology Down Under blog.
Facts, data, info, expert opinion and a reasonable voice on viruses: what they are, how they tick and the illnesses they may cause.MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.comBlogger934125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-52289331389244000252017-09-02T09:43:00.002+10:002018-01-21T14:58:09.507+10:00VDU has moved house....<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">If you're looking for new posts about viruses and virus-related stuff (which could be anything really!), from now on please go over to the new site with its easy-to-remember address...</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Hope to see you there!</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Cheers,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">-Ian</span><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-20184660209956717772017-08-16T15:07:00.001+10:002018-05-08T08:02:56.308+10:00This little MERS-CoV infected piggy had RNA, but that little piggy with indirect contact had none...<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">This post has been moved to the new <a href="http://virologydownunder.com/">Virology Down Under</a> platform on Wordpress.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">You can get to this specific post by clicking on the link below...</span><br />
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<a href="http://virologydownunder.com/this-little-mers-cov-infected-piggy-had/"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">http://virologydownunder.com/this-little-mers-cov-infected-piggy-had/</span></a><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Please adjust your bookmarks.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: medium;">Apologies for any inconvenience.</span><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-59364707463708246382017-07-15T17:04:00.000+10:002019-07-12T19:51:11.739+10:00900 words on some general stuff about viruses and those other bugs...<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This post has been moved to the new <a href="http://virologydownunder.com/">Virology Down Under</a> platform on Wordpress.<br /><br />You can get to this specific post by clicking on the link below...<br /> <br /><a href="https://virologydownunder.com/900-words-on-some-general-stuff-abou/">https://virologydownunder.com/900-words-on-some-general-stuff-abou/</a><br /><br />Please adjust your bookmarks.<br /><br />Apologies for any inconvenience.</span><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-65116381107205487302017-07-09T14:40:00.003+10:002017-07-09T14:42:45.074+10:00Ebola virus disease over in the DRC....<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Another year, another outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) overcome in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with the help of a mix of expert local skill and knowledge, isolation and rapid global response.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">The World Health Organization have summed up the end of an outbreak in which 4 died, 5 cases were lab confirmed and there were a total of 8 likely EVD cases.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvKRiZF2G4r1kWSILvMDVcvZsstXH7sKu2JzFbhpkWLzf5YhX5aZQSupMxnS9kSBKvUds9oXvSYbo3bxSzaYotOJgh44FdclImcQpRBxZpb4nE9NPv8liFxIeFBUX0tM1F_26mMOUj1hM/s1600/EbolaDRC_to02JUL2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="733" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvKRiZF2G4r1kWSILvMDVcvZsstXH7sKu2JzFbhpkWLzf5YhX5aZQSupMxnS9kSBKvUds9oXvSYbo3bxSzaYotOJgh44FdclImcQpRBxZpb4nE9NPv8liFxIeFBUX0tM1F_26mMOUj1hM/s640/EbolaDRC_to02JUL2017.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">References...</span></b><br />
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<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://www.afro.who.int/en/media-centre/pressreleases/item/9744-who-declares-an-end-to-the-ebola-outbreak-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo.htm">http://www.afro.who.int/en/media-centre/pressreleases/item/9744-who-declares-an-end-to-the-ebola-outbreak-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo.htm</a>l</span></li>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-60827782585194659222017-07-02T14:37:00.003+10:002017-07-02T14:37:59.098+10:00Editor's Note #27: Anakin Fencewalker joins the Force...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">After 19 years, our furry family member had to leave us this Wednesday. His quality of life was decreasing and he had stopped eating - he made the call and he let us know.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">He is missed enormously and remembered daily by his human family, for many things.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">He saw two PhDs completed; he sat through the writing of 70+ papers, a book, 14 chapters, 11 reviews (all had late night writing components that required pats and scratches), he watched over the growth of two babies and has been with them all their lives; he lived in the two houses my family have known; he was a constant companion to my wife and he kept me (and my keyboard) company while I wrote many pieces for this blog.</span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Anakin Fencewalker.<br />12SEPT1998-28JUL2017</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Thankyou Anakin.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">May the Fence be with you.</span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-39596339944205652402017-06-24T22:29:00.002+10:002017-06-24T22:29:13.382+10:00Another canary in the same coalmine - mild MERS may be bad news...<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Sometimes, the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is detected in a person who is not ill. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Weird huh? </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />Not really. This is the result of laboratory testing of contacts of a known and infected person during the process of containing a potential outbreak. </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /><br />For me personally, this is one big question about new or emerging viral infections or infections we are still learning about - like new influenza viruses, MERS-CoV, ebolaviruses and Zika virus. Do we really know how often a laboratory-confirmed infected person with mild or no illness can spread virus to a new person - an uninfected potential host? Are our tools up to the job of detecting what's happening and are we using them properly?<br /><br />Conventional wisdom is that truly asymptomatic but virus infected people do not infect others around them, or if they do, it's a pretty rare event. Because the risk is seen as low, studies around this issue are often down the list of research priorities. <br /><br />The importance of this issue lies in whether mild or asymptomatic people need to be more closely considered as having a role in spreading virus and contributing to community or hospital outbreaks.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br />Emerging from the 2015 South Korean MERS-CoV outbreak, a recent report described the findings from laboratory testing of 82 contacts of an asymptomatic healthcare worker.[1] No other person became MERS-CoV positive. I have some issues with the fact that the nurse herself does not seem to have been tested to show that she developed antibodies to MERS-CoV and there also isn't a lot of discussion about how the PCR testing for MERS-CoV can be a bit "flaky" when sampling once from the upper respiratory tract. Although, there aren't any sampling details in this paper either (I'll blog about this paper another day)!</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">But I digress. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">I've plotted the all the publicly available mentions of asymptomatic MERS-CoV infections, by week, in the graph below (the bottom panel). </span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><i>Click on image to enlarge.</i></span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">The yellow peaks show that cases without illness usually correlate with healthcare workers in the graph above, during hospital and healthcare facility outbreaks (see my previous post describing the pink graph in the top panel).[2] </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">This isn't too surprising. The majority of disease associated with MERS-CoV infection arises in older males who already have an underlying disease including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions. Healthcare workers however are usually younger and do not have, or have not yet developed, such comorbidities. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">MERS-CoV is often a shown to be a bit of a bully when challenged by a healthy younger host's immune system. Although, when hit with a larger primary dose of virus from an infected camel, even the healthy can get hit very hard.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Healthcare workers can be the 'canary in the coalmine', except singing about a healthcare outbreak rather than a gas leak. Similarly, laboratory confirmed MERS-CoV infection manifesting with only mild or no signs and symptoms of disease, also serve this role as a sentinel of hospital, rather than camel-to-human, transmission of MERS-CoV.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>References...</b></span><div>
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<li><a href="https://academic.oup.com/cid/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/cid/cix170" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Infectivity of an Asymptomatic Patient With Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection.</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/working-for-health-can-make-you-sick.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Working for health can make you sick....</span></a></li>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-52805504478362108002017-06-20T08:56:00.000+10:002017-06-24T17:14:37.389+10:00Working for health can make you sick....<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Below is a quick look at the percentage of total Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) cases reported each week that are listed as being healthcare workers (HCWs).</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimmWtuspECVrOjaY7VVoNYcY93V0EfH92F8hFNFjSSphvUBvOHw8RhvXLutemFqD6fii0V9Hl83v_o8GU8ho4gkc_tLEmygOlOjuWYOohcG5Dwu1jXbuMomhVzIJTDZoAsnHaqgYuEaz4/s1600/MERS-HCW-by-week.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="1600" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimmWtuspECVrOjaY7VVoNYcY93V0EfH92F8hFNFjSSphvUBvOHw8RhvXLutemFqD6fii0V9Hl83v_o8GU8ho4gkc_tLEmygOlOjuWYOohcG5Dwu1jXbuMomhVzIJTDZoAsnHaqgYuEaz4/s640/MERS-HCW-by-week.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>The sources of the numbers used in this graph.</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">These data are curated by me for this blog in my spare time and are compiled from the <a href="http://www.moh.gov.sa/en/CCC/pressreleases/pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">Kingdom of Saudi Arabia'a Ministry of Health (MOH) daily reports</a>, the <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/" target="_blank">World Health Organization (WHO) disease outbreak notifications</a> (and relatively new line lists) and from the <a href="https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/146270-2012-2017-case-list-of-moh-who-novel-coronavirus-mers-ncov-announced-cases?t=205075" target="_blank">FluTrackers line list</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">I use the same numbering as FluTrackers use in an attempt to produce at least two lists that agree on numbering and content. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>Some other things to note about this graph..</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Each of the pink "spikes" is a percentage calculated by dividing the number of MERS-CoV laboratory confirmed </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">HCW</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"> </span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">by ALL of the MERS-CoV laboratory-confirmed cases that were reported in that same week... </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5G0NnpfLnXZ4SAWQWCRtICNGC9nKYm8h7uvqK1SfYv-kACS1C4mQseR6lzEEp9woLmc0VD4w-gOprdO9noT0T_t0FJa6mYsZP6a7f3ZtMsJRzIO5BrDj6sELP_ooqHdQ-81gBD5NFNew/s1600/MATHS_MERS-HCWs.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="174" data-original-width="1074" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5G0NnpfLnXZ4SAWQWCRtICNGC9nKYm8h7uvqK1SfYv-kACS1C4mQseR6lzEEp9woLmc0VD4w-gOprdO9noT0T_t0FJa6mYsZP6a7f3ZtMsJRzIO5BrDj6sELP_ooqHdQ-81gBD5NFNew/s640/MATHS_MERS-HCWs.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Sometimes there might be just 1 HCW and 1 patient - which would give a pretty big looking </span><b style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; font-size: xx-large;">50% </b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">positive (1 divided by 2). But clearly, it is just 1 HCW. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">So proportion (%) alone is not a whole lot of use sometimes. One needs to know the denominator (the bottom number of a fraction) to get a gauge of how big the problem really is. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">T</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">he current June hospital outbreak in Saudi Arabia includes three facilities in Saudi Arabia according to the WHO and the MOH.[1,2] From the 47-year old male reported on the 1st June as an index case in one facility, there have been about 44 secondary MERS-CoV detections (cases) in Riyadh. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Of the 44 MERS cases, 26 are listed as HCWs; 18 of 25 HCW MERS cases occurring in a single week (week beginning 5th June) and accounting for the 72% spike seen at the end of the graph above. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Just to confuse things, there were 3 distinct hospital outbreaks that occurred previously, in April and May, but it's not clear whether they contribute any cases to the June tally.[3]</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>Why can't we have nice things?</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">There has been no other successful effort, by anyone, to produce a single public MERS case list with a universally agreed upon numbering scheme that contains useful but deidentified case detail, that everyone could refer to and use. The same applies to the influenza A (H7N9) virus as well. This has only been achieved by public volunteer bloggers; FluTrackers and this blog. Pretty poor when you think on it.</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">References...</span></b><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/06/who-details-saudi-mers-clusters-outbreak-grows">http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/06/who-details-saudi-mers-clusters-outbreak-grows</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/13-june-2017-mers-saudi-arabia/en/">http://www.who.int/csr/don/13-june-2017-mers-saudi-arabia/en/</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/06/who-reports-3-saudi-hospital-mers-clusters-new-cases-uae-qatar">http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2017/06/who-reports-3-saudi-hospital-mers-clusters-new-cases-uae-qatar</a></span></li>
</ol>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-21168920302738736932017-06-18T10:48:00.001+10:002019-07-12T19:46:30.047+10:00Climate and science denial....<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">This post has been moved to the new <a href="http://virologydownunder.com/" style="color: #3d85c6; text-decoration-line: none;">Virology Down Under</a> platform on Wordpress.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arvo; font-size: 15.84px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 15.84px;"></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">You can get to this specific post by clicking on the link below...</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444;" /><a class="components-external-link edit-post-post-link__link" href="https://virologydownunder.com/climate-and-science-denial/" rel="external noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #0096dd; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; transition-duration: 0.05s; transition-property: border, background, color; transition-timing-function: ease-in-out;" target="_blank"><span class="edit-post-post-link__link-prefix" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: middle;">https://virologydownunder.com/</span><span class="edit-post-post-link__link-post-name" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: middle;">climate-and-science-denial</span><span class="edit-post-post-link__link-suffix" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: middle;">/</span></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">Please adjust your bookmarks.</span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: Arvo;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif;">Apologies for any inconvenience.</span><br />
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<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-13437586174411678082017-05-21T12:27:00.002+10:002017-05-21T12:27:42.790+10:00Ebola in the DRC: list of border-checking countries at seven...<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Starting from WHO Regional Office for Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Situation Report No. 2,[1] there have been an increasing number of countries that are screening ill-looking people for EVD at their ports of entry. Currently [7] there are 7 and they are:</span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Kenya</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Nigeria</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Rwanda</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">South Africa</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">United Republic of Tanzania</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Zambia</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: large;">Zimbabwe </span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Quite a few more than I listed yesterday. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhogjXIK_y9EY8DTMrw3U_fNugOKxjY2eE2JecLRpbYCkrHdMWCJGjL-CPSx1BZXHlIBX6UamAWkc3bIcziQedBbQX2xPFHknJ4F_00X0POGgRXiFCIfeaUNJQNd9owj-xkuQVcaon4-Hg/s1600/Ebola-DRC-2017_21MAY2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhogjXIK_y9EY8DTMrw3U_fNugOKxjY2eE2JecLRpbYCkrHdMWCJGjL-CPSx1BZXHlIBX6UamAWkc3bIcziQedBbQX2xPFHknJ4F_00X0POGgRXiFCIfeaUNJQNd9owj-xkuQVcaon4-Hg/s640/Ebola-DRC-2017_21MAY2017.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Latest EVD figures form the DRC.<br /><i>Click on image to enlarge.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">No borders are closed to travellers from, or who have travelled through, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is good news.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmPmRv3pFJZupYBvgXBnIyC14_kIqDeUF2gyqpoDKVQ4n6-Gxv87ZhlrSpig6UdtCnIpeNuwJy22i5_Prorbc1vA7eIJGvZlhXlndJ_-YiCQLF2Wb3sqfXihav3AeW-96yzwnK0o0GnOM/s1600/Ebola-DRC-2017_TRAVEL__19MAY2017.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmPmRv3pFJZupYBvgXBnIyC14_kIqDeUF2gyqpoDKVQ4n6-Gxv87ZhlrSpig6UdtCnIpeNuwJy22i5_Prorbc1vA7eIJGvZlhXlndJ_-YiCQLF2Wb3sqfXihav3AeW-96yzwnK0o0GnOM/s640/Ebola-DRC-2017_TRAVEL__19MAY2017.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Screenshot from SitRep No.5.[1]<br />Click on image to enlarge.</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Presumably this screening relies on the appearance of signs of illness, questionnaires and perhaps thermal camera images to identify feverish people.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">As I alluded to yesterday, these efforts are not very effective at actually picking up EVD cases from among a milieu of other febrile illness that stumble through a port of entry.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Studies - some of which are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0071254/" target="_blank">summed up in this Canadian review</a> [2] - are usually not supportive of any practical benefit from using fever as a screening tool to pick out a single disease in passing travellers.[3,4,5] </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">However, these screening efforts do play a role in making citizens and politicians feel better and more useful. The precautions may also be helpful in keeping travel flowing.[6] Whether the continued flow of travel during an epidemic that may leak from a hotzone is a good thing or not will no doubt (once again) be dissected after a more more transmissible pathogen sweeps across the world I expect.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">References....</span></b><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><a href="http://www.afro.who.int/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=10836&Itemid=2593"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/255463/1/EbolaDRC-1652017-eng.pdf?ua=1</span></a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0071254/"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmedhealth/PMH0071254/</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://afludiary.blogspot.com.au/2011/05/study-thermal-scanners-pandemic.html"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">http://afludiary.blogspot.com.au/2011/05/study-thermal-scanners-pandemic.html</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://afludiary.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/eid-journal-evaluating-border-entry.html"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">http://afludiary.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/eid-journal-evaluating-border-entry.html</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://afludiary.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/why-airport-screening-cant-stop-mers.html"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">http://afludiary.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/why-airport-screening-cant-stop-mers.html</span></a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27390092"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27390092</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.afro.who.int/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=10836&Itemid=2593"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">http://www.afro.who.int/index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=10836&Itemid=2593</span></a></li>
</ol>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-63047740909933589382017-05-20T15:10:00.001+10:002017-05-20T15:12:54.893+10:00Ebola virus disease in the DRC: first graphs...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">The World Health Organization have apparently found an outlet for their Ebola virus disease (EVD) reports for 2017's Democratic Republic of the Congo outbreak.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">It's not the Disease Outbreak News site. It's not the WHO media page. It's not any of the past EVD outbreak pages on the central WHO site.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Turns out the Situation Reports (SitReps) are to be found on a new page on the WHO African site.[1] Okay. Why not? Found it eventually. I've plotted the first 4 (they started from 15th of May) below. Not much to say about trends at this early stage obviously!</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw1hRZotAxMS1NE4Gk3rE15QhFGa1nDzmlefHfnvDiysIJFctj0pB2KU9rzGYu5yfPhVeZ944ogaTr1hn7rwI7VGnHQSfrSZqRs5Ql45RkCw53kB_I2TI-sADp9Zl4chEFhtOSgqH3mR0/s1600/Ebola-DRC-2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw1hRZotAxMS1NE4Gk3rE15QhFGa1nDzmlefHfnvDiysIJFctj0pB2KU9rzGYu5yfPhVeZ944ogaTr1hn7rwI7VGnHQSfrSZqRs5Ql45RkCw53kB_I2TI-sADp9Zl4chEFhtOSgqH3mR0/s640/Ebola-DRC-2017.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Click on image to enlarge.</span></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Don't go expecting to find <i>how we</i> <i>got </i>to the totals shown on the 15th - those may well be lost details. Or they may come out later. We'll have to wait and see. Outbreaks viewed from the public point of view are very much about patience and trying not to leap to any dramatic conclusions - like those decisions taken by at least one country in Africa to start screening passengers for signs of EVD.[2] It's your budget guys - spend up if it makes you feel safe. At this stage, and perhaps ever, its a pretty wasteful exercise though; apart from your citizens seeing you doing something.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Back to numbers. I'm pretty impressed with the WHOAfro SitRep - the 4th Report carries a detailed table of cases, deaths and locations and also a timeline graphic (below) which is fantastic. </span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9O1AggpYDMtw7B8C6_Ibd1ijtPR8LFq7sWk7Dy7DfivYVtyeKH3d3NlWEgsw95axvVwQig1J1MF-cIODS1tfIbbrKUAZVRihdNiQvAAP0IplNMBPOR9PaXMMJtaTWO3eHYEEHmwFUr7U/s1600/EbolaDRV_2017_WHO_SitRep_TImeline_18MAY2017.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9O1AggpYDMtw7B8C6_Ibd1ijtPR8LFq7sWk7Dy7DfivYVtyeKH3d3NlWEgsw95axvVwQig1J1MF-cIODS1tfIbbrKUAZVRihdNiQvAAP0IplNMBPOR9PaXMMJtaTWO3eHYEEHmwFUr7U/s640/EbolaDRV_2017_WHO_SitRep_TImeline_18MAY2017.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-size: 12.8px;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Click on image to enlarge.</span></i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">This image is part of SitRep No.4.[3]</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">And to wrap up, just for a glimpse of what has come before and where we are now (and because I promised <a href="https://twitter.com/kristindownie" target="_blank">@kristindownie</a> I would!), I've also added an updated "EVD through time" bar graph. Where we are with the current outbreak total is highlighted using a red arrow and the towering totals of West Africa are indicated by yellow arrows.</span><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSDTx9DAuJmi0oivOh-e2FebXmDFOvBm7nN-Sv2sOGxSA8ow_1E_vCOe39ov77hvBFjPdCKO3XIOqA03IoeDi6hBzP4ae6nN1QrpNVRwwHRh-XE__FJYizlICXaP5jUQGjhek95o68vNY/s1600/Ebola-outbreaks-through-time_2017_20MAY2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSDTx9DAuJmi0oivOh-e2FebXmDFOvBm7nN-Sv2sOGxSA8ow_1E_vCOe39ov77hvBFjPdCKO3XIOqA03IoeDi6hBzP4ae6nN1QrpNVRwwHRh-XE__FJYizlICXaP5jUQGjhek95o68vNY/s640/Ebola-outbreaks-through-time_2017_20MAY2017.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i>Click on image to enlarge.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">References...</span></b><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.afro.who.int/en/ebola/ebola-situation-reports.html">http://www.afro.who.int/en/ebola/ebola-situation-reports.html</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/231328-ebola-nigeria-intensifies-screening-at-airports.html">http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/231328-ebola-nigeria-intensifies-screening-at-airports.html</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/255526/1/EbolaDRC-1852017-eng.pdf?ua=1">http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/255526/1/EbolaDRC-1852017-eng.pdf?ua=1</a></span></li>
</ol>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-61298990798672003112017-05-13T17:15:00.000+10:002018-05-10T15:09:52.477+10:00Ebola returns to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): Zaire...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>UPDATE No.1 14MAY2017 AEST</i></span></div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>UPDATE No.2 15MAY2017 A<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">EST</span></i></span></div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i>UPDATE No.<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">3</span> 1<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">7</span>MAY2017 A<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">EST</span></i></span></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">UPDATE No.4 18MAY2017 AEST</span></i></span></div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> </span></i></span><span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">UPDATE No.5 18MAY2017 AEST</span></i></span></div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">UPDATE No.6 10MAY2018 AEST</span></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">The World Heath Organization <a href="https://twitter.com/WHO/status/863022054223773697" target="_blank">alerted the world</a> on May 12th [1] to an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Likati, a remote region in the Bas-Uele province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).[4] The news had been communicated to them on the 11th May by the DRC Ministry of Heath.[6]</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">This is the 8th recorded outbreak in the DRC and it is hoped that their expertise, together with a range of rapidly mobilised outside expertise, will contain this one quickly and with a minimal loss of life.[5]</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">It reportedly took 10 days for the first samples to reach the lab in Kinshasa for testing.[8] Google estimates about 47 hours to travel the ~3,000km from <a href="https://www.google.com.au/search?q=kinshasa+to+likati&oq=kinshasa+to+likati&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.3167j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#q=kinshasa+to+aketi" target="_blank">Kinshasa to Aketi</a> (about 50km <i>beyond</i> Likati via Google's inland suggested route - doesn't account for off the 'main' road and forest parts) - it doesn't give estimates for Likati direct. The WHO explained...</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYZKPvCOhqfgvYYf46rJIe5pktQvFV7MQVx72o-OcG1PkkT7YdJoUilSK0chgk0tPbzzdgFubVXO-bXdfItB18riRwf6nru4jM88gxVVGkz8A9ncMHIkrlu-QMqvpgiJVWnYT63sStuKQ/s1600/WHO_15MAY_0600.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYZKPvCOhqfgvYYf46rJIe5pktQvFV7MQVx72o-OcG1PkkT7YdJoUilSK0chgk0tPbzzdgFubVXO-bXdfItB18riRwf6nru4jM88gxVVGkz8A9ncMHIkrlu-QMqvpgiJVWnYT63sStuKQ/s400/WHO_15MAY_0600.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">See thread here if you use Twitter.</td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">The journey to Likati is not an easy one.[16] Planes and helicopters are being used and there are questions around how secure the area is.[18] While remoteness is anecdotally beneficial for containing the spread of an outbreak, there are 2 clusters of illness and death outside of Bas-Uele, marked on the Ebola SitRep maps, which may test this theory.[17] </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">There are reportedly 300,000 (GAVI/Merck emergency stockpile [13])-700,000 doses of the rVSV-ZEBOV </span><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">vaccine which has been reported to be highly effective at preventing EVD.[3,9,10]</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Early numbers were a bit confusing [2] - as often happens in the fog of announcement of an outbreak - but since 22nd April there seem to have been:</span></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><b>20 suspected and confirmed cases </b>in total [<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">17</span>] </span></li>
<span style="font-size: large;"> </span><ul><span style="font-size: large;"> </span>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">3 fatal cases (<a href="http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/09/the-proportion-of-fatal-cases-pfc.html" target="_blank">proportion of fatal cases</a>: 15%)</span></li>
<span style="font-size: large;"> </span>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">1 of 5 samples was initially laboratory confirmed (PCR) at Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale (INRB) in Kinshasa - it tested positive for <i>Zaire ebolavirus</i></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">a<i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> </span></i>2nd case has since been <i>Zaire ebolavirus</i> lab <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">confirmed</span> [1<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">2]; 3 have tested negative [17]</span><i> </i></span></li>
<span style="font-size: large;"> </span>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">at least 6 cases hospitalised [7]</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">≧416 <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">contacts</span> being traced [17] </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">1st case - 45 year old (or 39yo) male (45M) transported by taxi; died on arrival [11]</span></li>
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<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">driver fell ill and died</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: medium;">carer of 45M fell ill and died (=25 <span style="font-size: large;">contacts)</span></span> </span></span></li>
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<li><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Nambwa health district has notified the greatest number of the earliest cases: 13 in all, with 2 deaths (case fatality: 15%).[15]</span></span></li>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEcoNPnJFpSarwYk4b_3lONvtm8rlxt0Vudso9SWSKXj4jezerHMvigaol9qQSx5lD7absh4C8UhINpHutJRUGuc50o1JWhG6rODUGrkEXlzEvzvyKZrp-uTp_OqZKiQYd5NjwdY1VUE8/s1600/Ebola2017_DRC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1483" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEcoNPnJFpSarwYk4b_3lONvtm8rlxt0Vudso9SWSKXj4jezerHMvigaol9qQSx5lD7absh4C8UhINpHutJRUGuc50o1JWhG6rODUGrkEXlzEvzvyKZrp-uTp_OqZKiQYd5NjwdY1VUE8/s640/Ebola2017_DRC.png" width="592" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNxYWPlMIfG66RTVOBCupMgOE4KFGD6mS8MrlbsP_jWoO2xVETvoUpQaGWCeIralF1YC51A7Q_hYMQ3JXPPlHEVMlOVAIO5KRj4Tr9-2FCSBgoWGdF3N8nvT6PKvjCGDu48r5_N5mTaeE/s1600/Ebola2017_DRC_ZOOM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1359" data-original-width="1200" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNxYWPlMIfG66RTVOBCupMgOE4KFGD6mS8MrlbsP_jWoO2xVETvoUpQaGWCeIralF1YC51A7Q_hYMQ3JXPPlHEVMlOVAIO5KRj4Tr9-2FCSBgoWGdF3N8nvT6PKvjCGDu48r5_N5mTaeE/s320/Ebola2017_DRC_ZOOM.png" width="282" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVxjxmWCc4t4BirZQB6hqXq-1LCNkUgmH_wlQfeCgsm2dWohEDXWxofLNLfCUOmHPqmsQ7u4bAB3Q_yf8ZVjovBdS0Hiu-GVZ9mgK8WAcbZXnaOokoS1tgHJdKSjJfkbS2JxMf4qyruDQ/s1600/Ebola2017_DRC_Likati_zoom.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></a></div>
<b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></b> <b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">References...</span></b><br />
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<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://twitter.com/WHO/status/863022054223773697">https://twitter.com/WHO/status/863022054223773697</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/a-new-ebola-outbreak-in-the-democratic-republic-of-congo/526506/">https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/a-new-ebola-outbreak-in-the-democratic-republic-of-congo/526506/</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/12/528124232/ebola-death-confirmed-in-democratic-republic-of-congo">http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/12/528124232/ebola-death-confirmed-in-democratic-republic-of-congo</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.wired.com/2017/05/ebola-returns-central-africas-virus-hunters-ready/">https://www.wired.com/2017/05/ebola-returns-central-africas-virus-hunters-ready/</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/12/ebola-returns-in-congo-a-test-of-next-time/">https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/12/ebola-returns-in-congo-a-test-of-next-time/</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.minisanterdc.cd/">www.minisanterdc.cd</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/13-may-2017-ebola-drc/en/">http://www.who.int/csr/don/13-may-2017-ebola-drc/en/</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/New-Ebola-case-reported-in-Democratic-Republic-of-11143890.php?cmpid=twitter-tablet">http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/New-Ebola-case-reported-in-Democratic-Republic-of-11143890.php?cmpid=twitter-tablet</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/will-vaccine-help-curb-new-ebola-outbreak-drc">http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/will-vaccine-help-curb-new-ebola-outbreak-drc</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.nature.com/news/ebola-vaccine-could-get-first-real-world-test-in-emerging-outbreak-1.21989">http://www.nature.com/news/ebola-vaccine-could-get-first-real-world-test-in-emerging-outbreak-1.21989</a> </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.afro.who.int/en/media-centre/pressreleases/item/9609-dr-moeti-in-kinshasa-to-discuss-reponse-to-ebola-outbreak.html">http://www.afro.who.int/en/media-centre/pressreleases/item/9609-dr-moeti-in-kinshasa-to-discuss-reponse-to-ebola-outbreak.html</a> </span></li>
<li><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ebola-congo-idUSKCN18A0ZP"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ebola-congo-idUSKCN18A0ZP</span></a></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2131131-ebola-once-again-on-the-prowl-as-emergency-teams-stand-ready/"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">https://www.newscientist.com/article/2131131-ebola-once-again-on-the-prowl-as-emergency-teams-stand-ready/</span></a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/ebola-virus-disease-democratic-republic-congo-external-situation-0" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/ebola-virus-disease-democratic-republic-congo-external-situation-0</span></a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.afro.who.int/en/media-centre/pressreleases/item/9631-drc-response-to-the-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-in-bas-uele.html" target="_blank">http://www.afro.who.int/en/media-centre/pressreleases/item/9631-drc-response-to-the-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-in-bas-uele.html</a></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.radiookapi.net/2017/05/15/actualite/sante/ebola-en-rdc-defis-et-chances-dun-lointain-enclavement" target="_blank">http://www.radiookapi.net/2017/05/15/actualite/sante/ebola-en-rdc-defis-et-chances-dun-lointain-enclavement </a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/255486/1/EbolaDRC-1752017-eng.pdf?ua=1" target="_blank">http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/255486/1/EbolaDRC-1752017-eng.pdf?ua=1 </a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/%7Bf835f3ce-da12-4ae7-9c8c-0e0f3d6ef8f3%7D/extent-of-ebola-outbreak-in-drc-may-not-be-known-for-weeks" target="_blank">http://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/%7Bf835f3ce-da12-4ae7-9c8c-0e0f3d6ef8f3%7D/extent-of-ebola-outbreak-in-drc-may-not-be-known-for-weeks </a></span></li>
</ol>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;"></span> <b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Maps used to help place Likati and Bas-Uele...</span></b><br />
<ul></ul>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Likali,+Democratic+Republic+of+the+Congo/@2.8367393,24.0767423,12.58z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x174c091f836ed3a7:0x953f2989ce06ee1c!8m2!3d3.3632652!4d23.8882172" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Likali,+Democratic+Republic+of+the+Congo/@2.8367393,24.0767423,12.58z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x174c091f836ed3a7:0x953f2989ce06ee1c!8m2!3d3.3632652!4d23.8882172 </span></span></a></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.maphill.com/democratic-republic-congo/haut-zaire/bas-uele/aketi/likati/maps/physical-map/">http://www.maphill.com/democratic-republic-congo/haut-zaire/bas-uele/aketi/likati/maps/physical-map/</a> </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bas-Uele">https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bas-Uele</a> </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.geographic.org/geographic_names/name.php?uni=-2845643&fid=1034&c=congo_democratic_republic_of_the">http://www.geographic.org/geographic_names/name.php?uni=-2845643&fid=1034&c=congo_democratic_republic_of_the</a> </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.radiookapi.net/2017/05/12/actualite/sante/rdc-lepidemie-debola-declaree-likati">http://www.radiookapi.net/2017/05/12/actualite/sante/rdc-lepidemie-debola-declaree-likati</a> </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://nona.net/features/map/placedetail.1780382/Likati/#">http://nona.net/features/map/placedetail.1780382/Likati/#</a> </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://archive.wikiwix.com/cache/?url=http://www.rgc.cd/doctech/UNDP-GIS-25_RDC_administratif.pdf&title=D%C3%A9coupage%20administratif%20de%20la%20R%C3%A9publique%20d%C3%A9mocratique%20du%20Congo">http://archive.wikiwix.com/cache/?url=http://www.rgc.cd/doctech/UNDP-GIS-25_RDC_administratif.pdf&title=D%C3%A9coupage%20administratif%20de%20la%20R%C3%A9publique%20d%C3%A9mocratique%20du%20Congo</a> </span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.google.com.au/maps/dir/Kinshasa,+Democratic+Republic+of+the+Congo/Aketi,+Democratic+Republic+of+the+Congo/@-1.7639114,16.4322338,6z/data=!4m24!4m23!1m15!1m1!1s0x1a6a3130fe066a8b:0x168b7e4e1f52378d!2m2!1d15.2662931!2d-4.4419311!3m4!1m2!1d16.2417626!2d-4.4576406!3s0x1a6ac3e4a2e33e05:0x9c6b3712d00e8f72!3m4!1m2!1d22.0079434!2d-6.0510275!3s0x1a272e5aeb6c7c2d:0x7dd2311ec9e5eb94!1m5!1m1!1s0x174dc9c406f0b635:0x23818b9272381546!2m2!1d23.7811324!2d2.7388719!3e0">https://www.google.com.au/maps/dir/Kinshasa,+Democratic+Republic+of+the+Congo/Aketi,+Democratic+Republic+of+the+Congo/@-1.7639114,16.4322338,6z/data=!4m24!4m23!1m15!1m1!1s0x1a6a3130fe066a8b:0x168b7e4e1f52378d!2m2!1d15.2662931!2d-4.4419311!3m4!1m2!1d16.2417626!2d-4.4576406!3s0x1a6ac3e4a2e33e05:0x9c6b3712d00e8f72!3m4!1m2!1d22.0079434!2d-6.0510275!3s0x1a272e5aeb6c7c2d:0x7dd2311ec9e5eb94!1m5!1m1!1s0x174dc9c406f0b635:0x23818b9272381546!2m2!1d23.7811324!2d2.7388719!3e0</a> </span></span></li>
<li><a href="http://dlca.logcluster.org/display/public/DLCA/2.3+Democratic+Republic+of+Congo+Road+Network;jsessionid=A0C4684E811ABB1397C9B6C608B9B86F"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">http://dlca.logcluster.org/display/public/DLCA/2.3+Democratic+Republic+of+Congo+Road+Network;jsessionid=A0C4684E811ABB1397C9B6C608B9B86F</span></span></a></li>
</ul>
<ul></ul>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-large;">Updates...</span></b></div>
<div>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Fixed spelling mistakes in Likati, added detail about sampling delays</span></span></li>
<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"> </span></span> </span>
<li><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Added references 10-12; noted 2 cases now confirmed, 1<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">9</span> suspect cases in total </span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS",sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Update on where the 300,000 vaccines come from [13]</span></span></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: medium;">Update on contacts and ReliefWeb and WHO references</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: medium;">New SitRep from WHOAfro - altered case & testing numbers</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: medium;">Replaced maps to add in the correct population!</span></li>
</ol>
</div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-58370980222161721582017-04-16T15:33:00.002+10:002017-04-16T15:37:46.128+10:00March...for Science...this Saturday 22nd April...<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Hi All,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Reprinted with permission from</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://marchforscienceaustralia.org/">https://marchforscienceaustralia.org/</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">I hope you can make some time this coming <b>Saturday 22nd April</b> to get to your local March for Science venue, wave a sign and listen to some talks. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Check out the Australian website for details </span><span style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><a href="https://marchforscienceaustralia.org/">https://marchforscienceaustralia.org/</a> and <a href="https://www.eventbrite.com.au/o/march-for-science-australia-12831334980" target="_blank">RSVP </a>to help the organisers understand how many will be attending.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">It would be great to see as many scientists and members of the science-supporting public turn up to support the ongoing need for science in our everyday lives. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">As the local Australian supporters page details, the March for Science aims to celebrate that scientific knowledge delivers...</span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">community knowledge and understanding about the world(s) around us</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">information about new disocveries that is clearly communicated for eveyone to understand</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">facts to underpin public policies that guide our way of life</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">results that are deserving of ongoing long-term funding</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">I'm not involved in the march organisation but I hope to be at my <a href="https://www.eventbrite.com.au/e/march-for-science-brisbane-tickets-32582954494" target="_blank">local Brisbane march</a> - along with my science loving family. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">After cleaning our teeth with toothpaste and fluoridated water - both of which have scientific data to prove their effectiveness - we'll probably drive there in a car fabricated, assembled, painted, tested, fuelled and imbued with safety devices that have all resulted from scientific advances. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">We'll drive to the city on roads and bridges designed and made thanks to scientific achievements. We'll be singing along to the <a href="https://itunes.apple.com/au/album/moana-original-motion-picture-soundtrack-deluxe-edition/id1169181309" target="_blank">Moana soundtrack</a> - a digital download copied onto a CD from a movie we saw - every step of which was made possible thanks to a slew of scientific innovations and with storytelling bolstered by scientifically accurate research. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">We'll be wearing clothes made possible by scientific advances in fabric design, machining and colouring, assembled by people using machines that were produced from numerous individual scientific breakthroughs. We'll have applied sunscreen of a formulation that has been proven to reduce skin burning while we stand in Queensland's high ultraviolet midday sun. Sunburn has been shown through medical research (science!) to increase the risk of developing skin cancer later in life. One of my son's will be actively and safely mounting an immune response to his recent HPV vaccine - a development that will reduce his risk of some cancers, and reduce the risk of him passing along the virus that may cause such cancer in others.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">I'll also be wearing a machined cap to protect my head from burning. It will be embroidered with a computer-designed rhinovirus logo. Thank goodness for a vast array of scientific advances that that lead to computers, communication networks, financial transaction systems, broadband cabling and the internet via which I write this very blog (while consuming too much chocolate - which medical science tells me is overly laden with sugar and fat so as to be bad for me if I consume it regularly while continually sitting on this chair).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">There's a good chance I'll have taken some pain relief for a headache caused by a (probably rhino-)virus-induced common cold. The drug and the knowledge of the virus were all generated by medical doctors, chemists, physiologists, virologists, epidemiologists and other researchers generating and using science in a whole range of ways over decades.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Later we'll grab some lunch from a vendor that has made and stored the food in ways that mean we won't end up with food poisoning later (we hope) - because of lessons learned about microbes and food storage through the application of the scientific method and ongoing scientific checks. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">And that's just a sampling of the science that will permeate our lives during this one day.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Science is everywhere and we are wholly dependant upon it in our big city and suburban lifestyles. Science makes us safe. It allows us to work and to travel and to communicate (reading this on a mobile device much?) more effectively. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Science permeates our life in ways we already know and in ways we have yet to understand. Imagine what continuing the support for science will lead to in the near and distant future.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">We will March for Science because science has mostly made our lives better. </span><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-64440638805075310472017-03-27T07:37:00.003+10:002017-03-27T07:37:36.551+10:00Happy 4th birthday...<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">This blog!</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">I'm sure somene one said that a year in social media equates to 7 cat years. Maybe it 9.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkTDBNy-F_ZE-fok3PoTX5MM0AssvTeHzHkGvobC40-O74FZYqH1QvxgN7i1jiegkZ0-MRU2HsuONujaLBk9Fes6ADKnTLET58LUv8faWLGvBbgUDn-oaiKixHW7ANG4a6F-KrlmRRELc/s1600/VDU_4th+Birthday.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="124" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkTDBNy-F_ZE-fok3PoTX5MM0AssvTeHzHkGvobC40-O74FZYqH1QvxgN7i1jiegkZ0-MRU2HsuONujaLBk9Fes6ADKnTLET58LUv8faWLGvBbgUDn-oaiKixHW7ANG4a6F-KrlmRRELc/s320/VDU_4th+Birthday.JPG" width="320" /></a></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Anyhoo, I'll be hunting down a cake for us all today - or maybe a muffin at the canteen.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">My heartfelt thanks to those who have made writing for this blog so much fun. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">I hope we all keep learning about viruses together. Anything is worthwhile if you learn something from it. ...and have a reference to prove it was based on data...and cite that reference...and it gets cited by others...and peer reviewed....</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Happy 4th!!</span></span><br />
<br />
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-56566819336193536442017-03-14T23:39:00.003+10:002017-03-14T23:39:43.893+10:00SNAPDATE: H7N9 by map...<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">With the <a href="http://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/2017_avian_influenza_report_vol13_wk10.pdf" target="_blank">latest numbers </a>out from Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection, Week 10 marks the second week of around a dozen human spillover cases - likley to be poultry to human infections.</span><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlZuzBBUPn6uLRQPUZlFeqFh1-ePvw-HCoyc1uxEKc51fHhp5dB93p6oysJnnTSdhadW2RQN7YXma4Fl-ZDHvsTOHPace2o_mF6uvVFp5dlYnsDEoLt8W5kVpLLdAy2_F13pZQU8ktcPc/s1600/China_14MAR2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlZuzBBUPn6uLRQPUZlFeqFh1-ePvw-HCoyc1uxEKc51fHhp5dB93p6oysJnnTSdhadW2RQN7YXma4Fl-ZDHvsTOHPace2o_mF6uvVFp5dlYnsDEoLt8W5kVpLLdAy2_F13pZQU8ktcPc/s640/China_14MAR2017.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Click on image to enlarge.</span></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">While the number of cases at each geographic location within China is small given the millions living in each region, this week's cases are <b>spread across 10 provinces or municipalities</b>. A huge area. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Guangxi province is adjacent to Vietnam. It's always worth remembering that an <b>outbreak anywhere can turn into a threat everywhere</b>. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">From these numbers, there is no obvious escalation of human cases to suggest anything has changed in the way H7N9 infections are acquired; they remain <b>relatively rare and from animal-to-human close contact</b>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">While the cases are still coming, the totals (see weekly and daily bars below) shows a levelling off - at last suggesting a slowing of this season's epidemic. But stay tuned.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3dyBd8YlbELw6ss_NIegUpbE-Y8y1fdCpFQe6IsjQK2LQ6spXZa3TXPKL9O8_IeW0cvzay6L5VDPmtg3FYYmpPWT5C3EOFwvIqvRS0VBMNmwcYrj2MwydB6u3lEWR-nSUybVXhN56-OQ/s1600/H7N9_Week102017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3dyBd8YlbELw6ss_NIegUpbE-Y8y1fdCpFQe6IsjQK2LQ6spXZa3TXPKL9O8_IeW0cvzay6L5VDPmtg3FYYmpPWT5C3EOFwvIqvRS0VBMNmwcYrj2MwydB6u3lEWR-nSUybVXhN56-OQ/s640/H7N9_Week102017.png" width="444" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Numbers of human H7N9 cases.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Image taken from the VDU <a href="http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/influenza-ah7n9-virus-detection-numbers.html" target="_blank">static H7N9 graphs and numbers page.</a></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Click on image to enlarge.</span></i></div>
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<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-71534431481744205412017-03-05T16:22:00.003+10:002017-03-05T18:18:30.489+10:00Avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in humans: lay of the land... <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">I'm getting a little more of a grip on the H7N9 numbers thanks to the data from the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection (CHP) [1] - which have been a solid source in 2017.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">Keep in mind that these numbers :</span></span><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"> are imperfect because they are reported inconsistently by those who have the data and because they only contain partial detail - death details are impossible to come by. Please keep in mind that there is no global, running-tally of H7N9 cases presented to the public, by any public health entity. There is a great line list from the citizen-run FluTrackers list, ([2]my usual go-to) but in 2017 they got swamped by these unsatisfactory data.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">will only represent those cases that have been lab tested. Any people who have met the criteria for being a "Case" [pick from 3-6] - which in most instance means being sick. In some instances a cases is identified because diligent doctors have followed up those people who had contact with a <i>known </i>case - which is called contact tracing. Sometimes these contacts may virus positive by only mildly ill or have no illness at all.</span></li>
</ol>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">I've graphed these wrangled data using one of my older formats - to show which province, municipality or autonomous region is contributing to the peaks as the site of origin for an H7N9 case.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Sometimes where a case has been <b>detected</b> may not be where they were <b>infected</b>. I prefer to talk about where a case "acquired" their infection. </span></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIsgOErnhASqRkNiMhGO5fMdj7mdttrZzrKfHrPkPRjhz_oR1HkfT_YwR5dBL16u7T1uf6yYK8eNGx-pwQPMXu5GkGvgbIp0HwbAxizqQq3CcyU1Oz7IH5wEzdy3UALhb92ZOcdqJbdHc/s1600/Cases-per-week-by-acquiring-area_2017_05MAR2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIsgOErnhASqRkNiMhGO5fMdj7mdttrZzrKfHrPkPRjhz_oR1HkfT_YwR5dBL16u7T1uf6yYK8eNGx-pwQPMXu5GkGvgbIp0HwbAxizqQq3CcyU1Oz7IH5wEzdy3UALhb92ZOcdqJbdHc/s640/Cases-per-week-by-acquiring-area_2017_05MAR2017.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">Click on image to enlarge.</i><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">Data for this graph can be downloaded from my static H7N9 graphs page, </span><a href="http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/influenza-ah7n9-virus-detection-numbers.html" style="font-family: "Trebuchet MS", sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;" target="_blank">here</a><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: 12.8px;">.[9]</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">We can see - perhaps - that the major contributors to the peaks in January and February's 5th Wave are <b>Jiangsu </b>province (green circles) followed by <b>Zhejiang </b>province (orange circles) then <b>Guangdong </b>(brown circles), <b>Anhui </b>(purple circles), <b>Hubei </b>(red squares) and a range of smaller contributor regions. </span><div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Guangdong and Zhejiang are familiar to H7N9 watchers as being hotspots for human spillover and while Jiangsu has always had a presence in the outbreaks, it has had a very big season this time around.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">It remains to be seen whether a range of market live poultry market (LPM) closures has cut the flow of virus into these markets and to their many, many visitors. These closures have been in <b>response </b>to cases rather than to prevent the outbreaks but no obvious nationwide coordination is apparent. It seems likely that spread of infected fowl will continue until more markets close, the source is contained or the seasons for influenza spread (winter and colder shoulders) is over.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Stay tuned to the CHP update this week - last week's tally was lower than previous weeks; a blip or a trend? </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">A few things about this graph.</span></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">It mirrors the <b>FluTracker's line list </b>numbering scheme up until FT816. From entry No. 817 it uses data from the CHP reports. These are PDFs but as they helpfully told me by email this week - you can extract the data yourself using Adobe Acrobat Pro. If you don't have that - I've already done that extraction and am happy to share an Excel version of it with you. Shoot me an email, leave a message or Tweet me <complete id="goog_813788013"><a href="https://twitter.com/MackayIM" target="_blank">@MackayIM</a></complete>.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">The Outbreak numbering - or <b>waves </b>- is based on when cases appeared or stopped. Its imperfect too. There are published schemes but they also differ from each other [e.g. 7,8]. This isn't life or death - you get the idea from the obvious peaks and troughs. FYI - this year I've updated my numbering for previous outbreaks.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">Market closures include long term or short term shutdowns or rotating closures for one or more days for disinfection followed by restocking. Each province is a populous place. Often markets are closed here or there but not everywhere in a province and certainly not all provinces at once. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">Data are plotted by <b>week </b>of illness onset (hard data to come by) or when the case was reported. The grey peaks indicate totals from all provinces for that week</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">References...</span></b></div>
<div>
<ol>
<li><a href="http://www.chp.gov.hk/en/guideline1_year/29/134/332.html"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://www.chp.gov.hk/en/guideline1_year/29/134/332.html</span></a></li>
<li><a href="https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h7n9-outbreak-tracking/143874-flutrackers-2013-17-human-case-list-of-provincial-ministry-of-health-government-confirmed-influenza-a-h7n9-cases-with-links?t=202713"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h7n9-outbreak-tracking/143874-flutrackers-2013-17-human-case-list-of-provincial-ministry-of-health-government-confirmed-influenza-a-h7n9-cases-with-links?t=202713</span></a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h7n9/case-definitions.htm"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h7n9/case-definitions.htm</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/eri-ire/h7n9/case-definition-cas-eng.php"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/eri-ire/h7n9/case-definition-cas-eng.php</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/publications/h7n9-interim-case-definition-april-2013.pdf"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/publications/h7n9-interim-case-definition-april-2013.pdf</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/influenza_h7n9/InterimSurveillanceRecH7N9_10May13.pdf?ua=1"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/influenza_h7n9/InterimSurveillanceRecH7N9_10May13.pdf?ua=1</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/rra-influenza-a-h7n9-update-five.pdf"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications/Publications/rra-influenza-a-h7n9-update-five.pdf</span></a></li>
<li><a href="https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-016-2049-2"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-016-2049-2</span></a></li>
<li><a href="http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/influenza-ah7n9-virus-detection-numbers.html"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/influenza-ah7n9-virus-detection-numbers.html</span></a></li>
</ol>
</div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-55092839973891282372017-02-24T08:26:00.001+10:002019-07-13T14:27:40.219+10:00H7N9 numbers....no-one agrees...<br />This post has been moved to the new <a href="http://virologydownunder.com/">Virology Down Under</a> platform on Wordpress.<br /><br />You can get to this specific post by clicking on the link below...<br /><br /><a href="https://virologydownunder.com/h7n9-numbers-no-one-agrees/">https://virologydownunder.com/h7n9-numbers-no-one-agrees/</a><br /><br />Please adjust your bookmarks.<br /><br />Apologies for any inconvenience.<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
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9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-27111569331516111292017-02-21T19:10:00.003+10:002019-07-12T22:16:57.038+10:00H7N9 virus in humans in China: just how big is this?<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">This post has been moved to the new <a href="http://virologydownunder.com/" style="color: #3d85c6; text-decoration-line: none;">Virology Down Under</a> platform on Wordpress.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">You can get to this specific post by clicking on the link below...</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"> </span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444;" /><a class="components-external-link edit-post-post-link__link" href="https://virologydownunder.com/h7n9-virus-in-humans-in-china-just-how-big-is-this/" rel="external noreferrer noopener" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #0096dd; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; transition-duration: 0.05s; transition-property: border, background, color; transition-timing-function: ease-in-out;" target="_blank"><span class="edit-post-post-link__link-prefix" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: middle;">https://virologydownunder.com/</span><span class="edit-post-post-link__link-post-name" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: middle;">h7n9-virus-in-humans-in-china-just-how-big-is-this</span><span class="edit-post-post-link__link-suffix" style="box-sizing: inherit; vertical-align: middle;">/</span></a><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">Please adjust your bookmarks.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;"></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #444444;">Apologies for any inconvenience.</span></span><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
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9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-11790300409482473772017-02-19T14:22:00.001+10:002017-02-22T09:26:06.719+10:00H7N9 in humans - biggest ever season in humans - most poorly reported as well<div style="text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">UPDATE: No.1 20FEB2017 </span></span></i></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Below is the best I can do to plot avian influenza H7N9) virus cases in humans against month.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>And just to be clear - it's a <i>very </i>big underestimation. WHO is reporting <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">1,222 cases in humans [3] - but patchy public data exist for about 1,000. </span></b></span><br />
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvJvTRhhewXupRYgZCjPfReXNv4io_-COux0uLOzSWBg1fTzIVLGCWYwHxvPf-Nx6jj4O-Ru2FCyKWkxxuKkY9nxh-r6_EV1VpYMDv9eMTv8ueus4db361ATs2h659x9WPihkGUllY-aw/s1600/H7N9-2016-2017-Feb19th.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvJvTRhhewXupRYgZCjPfReXNv4io_-COux0uLOzSWBg1fTzIVLGCWYwHxvPf-Nx6jj4O-Ru2FCyKWkxxuKkY9nxh-r6_EV1VpYMDv9eMTv8ueus4db361ATs2h659x9WPihkGUllY-aw/s640/H7N9-2016-2017-Feb19th.png" width="474" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">Click on image to enlarge.</span></i><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small;">NOTE: Th<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">is is a big underestimate as it <span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">only includes cases</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">with public detail available to identify them. There are </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">approximately<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"> </span>200 cases missing<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">.</span> </span></span></span><i><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: small;"> </span></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Ideally the charts above woudl be based <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">on the</span> <b>month that illness onset occurred</b> - when <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">each person </span>became ill. But those details just are not publicly forthcoming from China's massive human and animal influenza surveillance and testing system. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">I'm sure the data are to hand internally, and they may be on hand at the <b>World Health Organization</b> (WHO) - but you wouldn't know it by looking for them publicly. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">The WHO used to be helpful with providing H7N9 data but it seems their latest efforts to provide more detail on MERS cases has exhausted them.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Hong Kong's Centre <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">for </span>Health Protection (CHP) has been valiantly chipping away, but they also fail to provide sufficient detail to link cases with media or other reports. What they do provide are summary totals.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">As for <b>fatal outcomes</b> from H7N9 infection - forget understanding who dies when and why. Those numbers have been frankly a pathetic mess for four years.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">This week marked the <b>fourth anniversary of our knowledge of H7N9 in humans</b> - the first case became ill February 18th 2013 in as part of a Shanghai family cluster. Since then we've seen less and less detail on cases. And by "detail" I don't mean their names and addresses - just case age, sex, date of illness onset/hospitalization/death, linkage between case and death, poultry or human contact and place infection was likely acquired. Basic and standard stuff.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">Meanwhile the mainstream media report every bolus of data that are dumped as if these were new cases and deaths that have just occurred. In reality, the huge January spike below may include many cases and deaths from a month or more earlier. It may mis many cases that have not been detected.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">We're definitely having a <i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">huge</span> </i>H7N9 season in 2016/17 (n=<b>176 </b>human cases using <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">public case</span> data<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">,</span> but over 400 based on announced totals[3]). We had bigger <i>detailed </i>tallies in 2014 (n=<b>326</b>) and 2015 (n=<b>220</b>), but never a season as big as these <b>totals </b>make it out to be now. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>This is the largest H7N9 season ever recorded.</b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;">In media interviews over the past weeks, I've put the current season down to lethargy in closing live bird markets as cases and deaths have mounted. The response has been faster in previous years.[1,2] Poultry is a big deal in China.[2] Perhaps the poultry lobby has won out over human life this season. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>References...</b></span><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/guangdong-sees-sense-among-feathers.html">http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2015/02/guangdong-sees-sense-among-feathers.html</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><a href="http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/live-bird-market-closures-continue.html">http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/02/live-bird-market-closures-continue.html</a></span></li>
<li><a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/20-february-2017-ah7n9-china/en/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> http://www.who.int/csr/don/20-february-2017-ah7n9-china/en/</span></a></li>
</ol>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"> Updates...</span></b></span></span></div>
<div>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A</span>mended to indicate the scale of the case numbers, based on totals, not indiv<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">idual</span> detailed cases, in the 2016/17 seasons. The largest season of <span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">H7N9 in humans...</span>on record.</span> </span></span></span></li>
</ol>
<ol>
</ol>
</div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-62901176246924697392017-02-10T09:17:00.005+10:002019-07-20T21:58:17.326+10:00Science needs to talk more but I know many scientists who don't...<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-35215844409137502842017-01-27T08:04:00.003+10:002017-01-27T08:04:59.164+10:00H7N9 is having a big season...Happy New Year!<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">My how things can change in 5 weeks. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">If you look back a few posts you'll see that in late December, the data suggested avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was having a wimpy season - its slowest to date. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Well, thanks to 100+ cases in China which have been bulk reported by the ever vigilant <a href="http://www.chp.gov.hk/en/" target="_blank">Hong Kong Centre for Heath Protection (CHP)</a> - and captured and listed by <a href="http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=202713" target="_blank">FluTrackers </a>- the situation has changed dramatically. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Never take your eye off influenza virus - especially during its favourite season. And this season is a particularly active one for avian influenza all over the world.[4]</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">H7N9 is an <b>avian influenza</b> virus (hence the "bird flu" moniker) that to date has been localised to China - especially but not exclusively to its eastern coast provinces - and it's a flu virus that doesn't make the birds it infects noticeably sick. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">These "low pathogenic" influenza viruses can sneak silently through poultry flocks because infections are mild - they don't cause infected birds to get sick or die. </span><br />
<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYxpgZtd-WHE_MlfZ5RPfvF0PZ4c7LT-XI_ntOCVYBeVNrGhpl_EqfsKyckWEqS_pDSZoxtCSzJEFNOI5im1fVktsLTnLA3nZwUtAYC7RUQGNFJqp8kAfWmc-RJSPA0TgTRO095vX7tJs/s1600/H7N9+season.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYxpgZtd-WHE_MlfZ5RPfvF0PZ4c7LT-XI_ntOCVYBeVNrGhpl_EqfsKyckWEqS_pDSZoxtCSzJEFNOI5im1fVktsLTnLA3nZwUtAYC7RUQGNFJqp8kAfWmc-RJSPA0TgTRO095vX7tJs/s640/H7N9+season.png" width="532" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Data on human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. Data from [1] <br /><i>Click on image to enlarge.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">The H5 avian influenza viruses on the other hand - H5N1, H5N8, <a href="http://afludiary.blogspot.com.au/2017/01/germany-hpai-h5n5-detected-at-two-more.html" target="_blank">H5N5</a> or <a href="http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/search?q=h5n6" target="_blank">H5N6 </a>for example - are called "high pathogenicity" avian influenza viruses because they kill off infected birds. Thankfully, H5N1 is the only H5 avian influenza that has caused a sizable number of human infections. H5N6 is gaining some ground though. The other H5s do not reportedly cause much impact in humans. Whether this is because they are not <b>found </b>or not <b>sought</b> in humans who have had contact with infected animals is unclear.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Disease in an H5-infected flock can serve as a <b>sentinel </b>for an outbreak of the virus. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">With H7N9 though, it's <i>humans </i>falling ill that set of the alarm that H7N9 (or another influenza virus) is in the house...or the market. And there are a sizable number of deaths among those - often male - who already have some sort of underlying illness and then acquire an H7N9 infection.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: x-large;">Most human cases of H7N9 result from contact with a "wet" market, also called a live bird market (LBM) in which chickens and ducks can be chosen, killed and dressed to provide a super-fresh meal. These tasty treats are especially in demand around this time of year as Chinese New Year is upon us. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Chinese New Year is also a time when we observe the largest seasonal migration of humanity in the world. [2] Loved ones travel across a massive country to visit each other, share stories, traditions, meals - and the occasional respiratory virus like influenza. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"></span>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiS5RKDJa9V9u5_4yWoxoK_Md439op2o7wcaSzHN_qtBKIgQ8WDtiHOoaV7OPxZSARLH796-CIWS4K_K1yNp_oHKUyoAQ8NvDs_atejjY4OdLWz8KpYIR7JxF2q1xOVlCPcXhUPeebo6Pk/s1600/cdc_covercgh_view.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiS5RKDJa9V9u5_4yWoxoK_Md439op2o7wcaSzHN_qtBKIgQ8WDtiHOoaV7OPxZSARLH796-CIWS4K_K1yNp_oHKUyoAQ8NvDs_atejjY4OdLWz8KpYIR7JxF2q1xOVlCPcXhUPeebo6Pk/s320/cdc_covercgh_view.jpg" width="246" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: small;">From [3].</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">In the coming weeks, as the gatherings disperse, it will be very interesting to see whether the current spike in human H7N9 infections is reflected by a steep rise in human cases acquired during the New Year celebrations - some of which include contact (direct or indirect) with infected poultry in backyard farms or LBMs.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"></span><br /><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Stay tuned. And don't forget to wash your hands often and cough/sneeze into the crook of your elbow.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">References...</span></b><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/influenza-ah7n9-virus-detection-numbers.html">http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/influenza-ah7n9-virus-detection-numbers.html</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/world/asia/chinese-new-year-home-lunar.html?_r=0">https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/world/asia/chinese-new-year-home-lunar.html?_r=0</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/covercough.htm">https://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/covercough.htm</a></span></li>
<li><a href="http://news.trust.org/item/20170126150919-05z2c/"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">http://news.trust.org/item/20170126150919-05z2c/</span></a></li>
</ol>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-6784568506382962332017-01-26T21:12:00.002+10:002017-01-26T21:12:40.556+10:00WHO sets the table....and lays it with MERS-CoV details<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">This just made my day. A<a href="https://twitter.com/Peterfoodsafety/status/824570567030427648" target="_blank"> Tweet</a> from scientist and program manager at the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr Embarek. In the tweet he noted that Middle East Respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) data will now be presented by WHO in an easy-to-access Mirosoft Excel table...</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsXd6Ur0h4MDRfe-x2aKVHmVSZVANQGm-Pmuh0uu1lU09JLRx5Iy4dvYNVTGndfLzVa6AvbqaW3NtPVmDD2Rxlf7qkqYiicsjbLEQ4KlTGu7HJH_H9Z6nPf9IAaANktYcESEo_8RRaz7s/s1600/EmbarakTweet_MERS_26JAN2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsXd6Ur0h4MDRfe-x2aKVHmVSZVANQGm-Pmuh0uu1lU09JLRx5Iy4dvYNVTGndfLzVa6AvbqaW3NtPVmDD2Rxlf7qkqYiicsjbLEQ4KlTGu7HJH_H9Z6nPf9IAaANktYcESEo_8RRaz7s/s1600/EmbarakTweet_MERS_26JAN2017.PNG" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">An example is in this <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/26-january-2017-mers-saudi-arabia/en/" target="_blank">latest update</a>.[1]</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiYdicX6i8-YsyS-tT3noYw9uKfJOa8Vt-jvzznxrooXKEKSfl3cATHbso7iwu1kz2E9UmECo9PFcBU33yXDrArmulGCTOBI7s-NzO4cWOzpvy6B2CvkqGljybY46xBCkZZHj0E-7G-Gk/s1600/MERS+data+by+table_WHO_26JAN2017.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="128" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiYdicX6i8-YsyS-tT3noYw9uKfJOa8Vt-jvzznxrooXKEKSfl3cATHbso7iwu1kz2E9UmECo9PFcBU33yXDrArmulGCTOBI7s-NzO4cWOzpvy6B2CvkqGljybY46xBCkZZHj0E-7G-Gk/s640/MERS+data+by+table_WHO_26JAN2017.PNG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Excerpt of new MERS-CoV data from [1]</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: x-large;">This will make data collection for scientists, public health teams and researchers looking to follow what's happening with this camel-borne virus as it spills over to humans so much easier. I've been painstakingly entering data from several sources since 2013 - and this will really streamline the process.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Thanks to those at the WHO for making this happen.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Now, could you please also do this for all the other pathogens you keep track of....different influenza viruses (H7N9, H5N6, H5N1), zika virus, dengue virus, yellow fever virus....and make it retrospective....</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>References...</b></span></div>
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</div>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/26-january-2017-mers-saudi-arabia/en/">http://www.who.int/csr/don/26-january-2017-mers-saudi-arabia/en/</a></span></li>
</ol>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-23914246806896778412016-12-26T14:44:00.000+10:002016-12-26T14:44:16.391+10:00Snapdate: influenza H7N9 cases in humans, by the numbers...<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="font-size: x-large;">An updated chart. </span><br /><i>[SNAPDATE'S are snap updates that don't have lots of detail and chat...although they almost always end up having lots of chat!]</i></span><div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">A summary of the monthly, weekly and daily data graphing human avian influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in humans reported from the hotzone, China.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3PMx2JaM3uZzlqRUl2GX3BeVDb3iBdwaQBJS2NQob5bTh5hoJOjzNQiPAaumePtOCma9Uw1XL59gJnwb_jAnLMQ6DsSsu7EtG7kH7ZZf-Fx95iX8Y9xTlOSkqcu67jYSdav4fLEb7CTA/s1600/H7N9-Daily-Weekly-Monthly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3PMx2JaM3uZzlqRUl2GX3BeVDb3iBdwaQBJS2NQob5bTh5hoJOjzNQiPAaumePtOCma9Uw1XL59gJnwb_jAnLMQ6DsSsu7EtG7kH7ZZf-Fx95iX8Y9xTlOSkqcu67jYSdav4fLEb7CTA/s640/H7N9-Daily-Weekly-Monthly.png" width="494" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif;">Daily weekly and monthly H7N9 numbers, taken from the <br /><a href="http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=202713" target="_blank">FluTrackers curated line list</a> [1] and the <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/" target="_blank">World Health <br />Organization disease outbreak news reports</a>.<br /><i>Click on image to enlarge.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: x-large;">References...</span></b></span><div>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=202713">http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=202713</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/">http://www.who.int/csr/don/en/</a></span></li>
</ol>
</div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-17576039305596683522016-12-23T14:39:00.000+10:002016-12-23T14:39:00.122+10:00H7N9:2016 has been the most quiet year to date...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Influenza A(H7N9) virus, or 'H7N9', has had a quiet year when compared to past outbreaks.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">All human cases to date have been linked to China. The majority of human cases have had some link with poultry - chickens or ducks - although we do hear of human-to-human transmission, this seems to be limited. H7N9 has been found in poultry from backyard farms and in live poultry markets (LPMs) in China - sometimes in the company of other influenza viruses, like H9N2.[1]</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWraJbmtJkGzmygnec18t4ZWXUjpzpSyn2B5Wz2KDLXG3Ss7nBq6ao8AqPXS77svbjGn49OIQnm5L3cDRgzmDTGGv80Qx7cau3Xs7bprJaBHwr8uhtP3bWwVhgn5rb4xGZ9smpVbs6sY0/s1600/H7N9-2013-2016.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWraJbmtJkGzmygnec18t4ZWXUjpzpSyn2B5Wz2KDLXG3Ss7nBq6ao8AqPXS77svbjGn49OIQnm5L3cDRgzmDTGGv80Qx7cau3Xs7bprJaBHwr8uhtP3bWwVhgn5rb4xGZ9smpVbs6sY0/s640/H7N9-2013-2016.png" width="288" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Trebuchet MS, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Cases and deaths each month over the 4 years we have known<br />about human cases of H7N9 infection.<br /><i>Click on image to enlarge.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Despite the slow year,the 2016 graph above shows the usual December uptick in human cases. It will be what happens next that matters. Will be see a big January surge as in 2014, or a later Feb-April surge as in 2013 and 2015? Will live LPMs be quickly closed, disinfected, the animals destroyed and any outbreaks in 2017 squashed or will they remain open allowing more human cases as the virus spreads among market animals?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">Time, and testing data - which China generates lots of but does not seem to enjoy publicly reporting - will tell.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">In 2016 - 2 new regions were added for the first time - <b>Tianjin municipality</b> and <b>Liaoning province </b>- both in the north-eastern coastal region of China. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;">In 2013, no sustained human-to-human transmission had been reported [2] - this remains true up until today.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: x-large;"><b>References...</b></span><br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4911810/pdf/nihms749408.pdf">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4911810/pdf/nihms749408.pdf</a></span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://www.nature.com/news/mapping-the-h7n9-avian-flu-outbreaks-1.12863">http://www.nature.com/news/mapping-the-h7n9-avian-flu-outbreaks-1.12863</a></span></li>
</ol>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-64575969481594728492016-12-18T17:11:00.000+10:002019-07-13T19:42:04.505+10:00Happy Festive Season to all who read this....<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<span style="font-family: georgia, "times new roman", serif; text-align: start;">T</span>his post has been moved to the new <a href="http://virologydownunder.com/">Virology Down Under</a> platform on Wordpress.<br /><br />You can get to this specific post by clicking on the link below...<br /><br /><a href="https://virologydownunder.com/happy-festive-season-to-all-who-read-this/">https://virologydownunder.com/happy-festive-season-to-all-who-read-this/</a><br /><br />Please adjust your bookmarks.<br /><br />Apologies for any inconvenience.</div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
9920132014201599</div>MackayIMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14990439985197493738noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2324297731039041197.post-69661872361474683732016-12-12T09:15:00.001+10:002016-12-12T09:15:03.292+10:00Get off my lawn you 2016....!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiyfXfKASMkZ2MJDqyUdaq1etzRuhwKHKSuqPhyphenhyphenxikPNnhM7GLgsIgK3GipQ098GWMpZgga5_uynZmmjJL_cVJ-iS3jl-zvM2HK98k8INeBF52IqZahmeJGB6smc3h1pHSJ7aDJaXGxnk/s1600/CzSfW92UkAAA_c8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="425" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiyfXfKASMkZ2MJDqyUdaq1etzRuhwKHKSuqPhyphenhyphenxikPNnhM7GLgsIgK3GipQ098GWMpZgga5_uynZmmjJL_cVJ-iS3jl-zvM2HK98k8INeBF52IqZahmeJGB6smc3h1pHSJ7aDJaXGxnk/s640/CzSfW92UkAAA_c8.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">© 2013-2019 Ian M. Mackay. PhD.
This content was originally published at http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/
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