Brazil's microcephaly and CNS disturbance (M&CD) monitoring: Report No. 22, 2016-Week No. 15...

These graphs are made using data obtained from Week 15's Brazil Ministry of Health microcephaly and foetal and infant microcephaly and central nervous system (CNS) disturbance (M&CD) report [1] and media report.[2]

The total number of suspected M&CD cases increased by 135 to 7,160 this week but those under investigation dropped by 95 to 3,741 this week - the fourth consecutive drop.

The chart above reports the number of newly suspected M&CD diagnoses in Brazil up to 16-April-2016. The cumulative curve (yellow dots; left hand axis) is steady and growing but not exponentially. This was a higher week (orange bars; right-hand axis) than last week but is among the smaller growth weeks.

In the graph above, we can see another big week (+175; blue bars; right hand axis) for suspected M&CD diagnoses that have been discarded upon closer investigation.The rate of these resolved diagnoses (line with blue dots, left-hand axis) continues to outpace the rate of confirmed microcephaly diagnoses (red dots, left-hand axis). The cumulative number of M&CD diagnoses does continue its climb this week (+55) despite two decreasing weekly totals (red bars; right-hand axis).

The number of these M&CD diagnoses to be confirmed with a Zika virus infection also continues its very slow climb (green dots; left-hand axis) also but has only risen by 3 new detections (green bars; right-hand axis) in this weeks report. That's the smallest rise since Week No.6. This maybe related to when testing is occurring. If it is too late after infection, then it will be negative. Although its not clear what samples are being tested nor whether form mum or baby.

References...

1. http://portalsaude.saude.gov.br/images/pdf/2016/abril/20/COES-Microcefalias---Informe-Epidemiol--gico-22--SE-15-2016--18abril2016--19h10.pdf
2. http://portalsaude.saude.gov.br/index.php/cidadao/principal/agencia-saude/23326-microcefalia-1-168-casos-foram-confirmados-em-todo-o-pais