Saturday, 13 May 2017

Ebola returns to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): Zaire...

UPDATE No.1 14MAY2017 AEST
UPDATE No.2 15MAY2017 AEST
UPDATE No.3 17MAY2017 AEST
UPDATE No.4 18MAY2017 AEST
 UPDATE No.5 18MAY2017 AEST
UPDATE No.6 10MAY2018 AEST
The World Heath Organization alerted the world on May 12th [1] to an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Likati, a remote region in the Bas-Uele province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).[4] The news had been communicated to them on the 11th May by the DRC Ministry of Heath.[6]

This is the 8th recorded outbreak in the DRC and it is hoped that their expertise, together with a range of rapidly mobilised outside expertise, will contain this one quickly and with a minimal loss of life.[5]

It reportedly took 10 days for the first samples to reach the lab in Kinshasa for testing.[8] Google estimates about 47 hours  to travel the ~3,000km from Kinshasa to Aketi (about 50km beyond Likati via Google's inland suggested route - doesn't account for off the 'main' road and forest parts) - it doesn't give estimates for Likati direct. The WHO explained...

See thread here if you use Twitter.
The journey to Likati is not an easy one.[16] Planes and helicopters are being used and there are questions around how secure the area is.[18] While remoteness is anecdotally beneficial for containing the spread of an outbreak, there are 2 clusters of illness and death outside of Bas-Uele, marked on the Ebola SitRep maps, which may test this theory.[17]

There are reportedly 300,000 (GAVI/Merck emergency stockpile [13])-700,000 doses of the  rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine which has been reported to be highly effective at preventing EVD.[3,9,10]

Early numbers were a bit confusing [2] - as often happens in the fog of announcement of an outbreak - but since 22nd April there seem to have been:
  • 20 suspected and confirmed cases in total [17]
    • 3 fatal cases (proportion of fatal cases: 15%)
    • 1 of 5 samples was initially laboratory confirmed (PCR) at Institut National de Recherche Biom√©dicale (INRB) in Kinshasa - it tested positive for Zaire ebolavirus
    • a 2nd case has since been Zaire ebolavirus lab confirmed [12]; 3 have tested negative [17]
    • at least 6 cases hospitalised [7]
    • ≧416 contacts being traced [17]
    • 1st case - 45 year old (or 39yo) male (45M) transported by taxi; died on arrival [11]
      • driver fell ill and died
      • carer of 45M fell ill and died (=25 contacts) 
    • Nambwa health district has notified the greatest number of the earliest cases: 13 in all, with 2 deaths (case fatality: 15%).[15]


References...

  1. https://twitter.com/WHO/status/863022054223773697 
  2. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/a-new-ebola-outbreak-in-the-democratic-republic-of-congo/526506/ 
  3. http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/12/528124232/ebola-death-confirmed-in-democratic-republic-of-congo 
  4. https://www.wired.com/2017/05/ebola-returns-central-africas-virus-hunters-ready/ 
  5. https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/12/ebola-returns-in-congo-a-test-of-next-time/ 
  6. www.minisanterdc.cd 
  7. http://www.who.int/csr/don/13-may-2017-ebola-drc/en/ 
  8. http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/New-Ebola-case-reported-in-Democratic-Republic-of-11143890.php?cmpid=twitter-tablet 
  9. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/will-vaccine-help-curb-new-ebola-outbreak-drc 
  10. http://www.nature.com/news/ebola-vaccine-could-get-first-real-world-test-in-emerging-outbreak-1.21989 
  11. http://www.afro.who.int/en/media-centre/pressreleases/item/9609-dr-moeti-in-kinshasa-to-discuss-reponse-to-ebola-outbreak.html 
  12. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-ebola-congo-idUSKCN18A0ZP
  13. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2131131-ebola-once-again-on-the-prowl-as-emergency-teams-stand-ready/
  14.  http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/ebola-virus-disease-democratic-republic-congo-external-situation-0
  15. http://www.afro.who.int/en/media-centre/pressreleases/item/9631-drc-response-to-the-ebola-virus-disease-outbreak-in-bas-uele.html
  16. http://www.radiookapi.net/2017/05/15/actualite/sante/ebola-en-rdc-defis-et-chances-dun-lointain-enclavement 
  17. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/255486/1/EbolaDRC-1752017-eng.pdf?ua=1 
  18. http://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/emerging-diseases/news/online/%7Bf835f3ce-da12-4ae7-9c8c-0e0f3d6ef8f3%7D/extent-of-ebola-outbreak-in-drc-may-not-be-known-for-weeks

Maps used to help place Likati and Bas-Uele...
      Updates...
      1. Fixed spelling mistakes in Likati, added detail about sampling delays
      2. Added references 10-12; noted 2 cases now confirmed, 19 suspect cases in total 
      3. Update on where the 300,000 vaccines come from [13]
      4. Update on contacts and ReliefWeb and WHO references
      5. New SitRep from WHOAfro - altered case & testing numbers
      6. Replaced maps to add in the correct population!

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