Tuesday, 11 February 2014

H7N9 by day: 10 disease onsets per day is the current peak..

Click on image to enlarge.
This builds on my two recent posts with cases per day data posted here and here.

Today it would seem that 27-Jan surpassed any previous day's total case number with 10 disease onsets on the 1 day. By the way, cases are still being found that became ill on that day

The previous "record" had been 8 cases in a day in 2013 and 2014. You can see that in the raw daily data (black line, grey circles).

The current average for 2014 is 4.3 cases per day. From 1-Jan to 27-Jan it sits at 5.5 cases per day. From 28-Jan to 10-Feb the average is 2 cases per day. However, not much can be concluded from the reducing averages yet since cases becoming ill during those days are still coming in. 

As we've read elsewhere, there have so far been 31 cases in January; the worst H7N9 month to date. But the case tally is unfinished. There is still an 8-day laboratory result turnaround to consider. There will be more to add to January yet.

Its hard to tell yet, but I cannot see a clear indication of market closures having had an impact. Certainly nowhere near the impact seen in 2013 when human case numbers precipitously declined within 2-3d after markets closed. More on this in another post later.