Thursday 6 February 2014

H7N9 snapdate: rolling average cases per day...

Click on image to enlarge.
This is really just an update from earlier today. My brain finally sorted out a niggling problem with the earlier version.

The chart needed to show 2013's peak season (now added to the previous version as"Rolling daily Av. Peak 2013" and shown above in green) minus the small number of cases preceding it, as I did for 2014. 

The preceding cases "dilute" down the average, giving a false impression of smaller case numbers per day than in 2014. 

I arbitrarily started this new line from the first time in 2013 that 4 H7N9 cases became ill in one day (28-March-2013; public data augmented with research literature for some). It tails off over time to join the total 2013 average, reaching 0.9 cases per day.

As you can see from the "Cases by Day" grey line; both 2013 an 2014 had 1 day with 8 case onsets (or case reported if no onset data available) in the 1 day. That is yet another benchmark to keep an eye on.

It's worth noting though that even this "enhanced" view of 2013's Case-by-Day chart, the average does not reach 2014's. The 2013 peak is 5/day whereas in 2014 the peak, so far, was 6/day but is currently at 4/day. 

Let's see what tonight holds.

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