The latest epidemiological report from Colombia, which includes data on Zika virus disease (ZVD; 11SEP2016-17SEP2016), has been produced by the Colombian National Institute for Health team.[1]
NOTE: While these data were reported the past epidemiological week (EW), they may not be from that week. See earlier post about possible reporting lag.
As of this report, 41 (+1 from last EW) live births have been diagnosed with congenital ZIKV syndrome (CZVS; microcephaly/central nervous system disorder), confirmed as being ZIKV positive. That represents 0.70% of all confirmed ZIKV positive mothers-the 8th consecutive EW in which this proportion has risen.
Some back of napkin calculations looking at these numbers suggest that there are 7 deliveries for every 1,000 ZIKV-positive pregnant women that result in a ZIKV infected baby with microcephaly.
This assumes each neonate has been tested for ZIKV as [2] suggests. This figure has no clear understanding of the number of aborted or miscarried foetuses that are also occurring from ZIKV-positive pregnant women. Abortions and miscarriages will need a local baseline to understand the scope of this component of the impact of ZIKV infection.
246 other microcephaly diagnoses (up from 216 last week) are now under investigation - this value had also been rising very quickly until a recent dip and plateau. Its rise once again might suggest suspicious CZVS cases in Colombia are accruing faster than the pace of complete investigation can keep up with.
The graph below focuses on just the ZIKV-positive cases and those that remain under investigation, highlighting how the investigatory total has changed each week.
 |
The change in confirmed ZIKV infection numbers when detected in
association with a microcephaly diagnosis, compared to the
preceding week's total (yellow bars, left-hand axis). Data are from [1].
Click on graph to enlarge. |
