Thursday, 10 July 2014

Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases, clusters and outbreaks mapped out...

The West African region epidemic (top map), including countries with imported cases and the totals from past Ebola virus disease outbreaks and the few imported monkey cases (the US & Philippines [hence zero human cases]) plotted by total numbers and country (bottom map).

These maps are best viewed alongside my Ebola virus disease numbers page found here.

The WHO create multi-page Situation Reports [2] and brief Situation Summaries.[3] They are currently presented on Wednesday and "additional updated figures" will be posted "as they become available any day of the week" (via eMail to journalists from WHO).

My totals include all countries that have hosted a case in, or sourced from, a West African nation. Countries include Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria (now EVD-free), Senegal (now EVD-free), the United States of America, Spain and Mali.

This is a static page but as of 21-Jan-2015 (AEST) I have copied the maps to the bottom of my main EVD EBOV|Makona (west African Zaire ebolavirus variant) outbreak page at:

A note about the proportion of fatal cases (PFC): 
On these graphs, my PFC calculations for West African countries and the DRC are based on dividing the total number of suspect/probable/confirmed deaths by the number of total suspect/probable/confirmed cases for the same date. This is crude and may be a sizable underestimate of the true PFC.

It may be better to use the deaths at the most recent date divided by the total cases from 9-16-days  earlier (this number is not precisely known) to better account for the lag in time between presenting to a treatment facility and dying (for those who do not recover). 

Some estimates suggest the true PFC may be closer to 70%-80%. I don't have enough data (or smarts) to be able to calculate the lag for now so please be aware that the PFC above is likely an underestimate.

  • The figure above, as with all on VDU, is made for general interest only. It is also freely available for anyone's use, just cite the page and me (Dr. Ian M Mackay, PhD) please. It may be that I have misinterpreted the language in the reports (sometimes a little tricky to wade through) or miscalculated some totals based on the way data have been presented. 
  • Sometimes there are very country-specific differences in what gets presented to/via the World WHO DONs/SitReps which make this process less clear than it could be. I recommend you have a read and compare the data from each of the countries for yourself to understand these issues. 
  • As I've talked about previously,[1] these numbers are all volatile for a variety of reasons, some Ebola-specific, so regard this chart for its trends only.
  • I am only able to plot what is publicly available. To date, this does not include granular data with dates of onset, or daily data of any kind. The WHO have these data and you will see them become more available through their Situation Reports found here
  1. Ebola virus disease and lab testing...
  2. Ebola virus disease outbreak Situation Reports (SitRep)
  3. Ebola virus disease outbreak Situation Summaries (SitSumm)