Sunday 26 January 2014

Zhejiang province surpasses 100 avian influenza A(H7N9) cases...

As of tonight's 2 additions, my tally shows Zhejiang province on 101 H7N9 cases, 41.2% of all 245 human infections confirmed to date. The BBC recently noted 55 deaths which would result in a PFC of 22%. This continues the lower trend we've seen in the PFC for a while now; the result of a sharp increase in new cases but few deaths among those.

In reality both the Zhejiang and the total case numbers are very likely a massive underestimate of the actual number of human infections, but until we have any actual lab testing results, we won't know that for sure and can only speculate on what's "out there" based on our experience, extrapolation from other outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics, 60+ years of respiratory virology research and a touch of logic.

Overall, in the most active of the case acquisition periods of 2013, we saw case numbers rise an fall abruptly...

  • Week 5: 7 cases
  • Week 6: 17 cases
  • Week 7: 29 cases
  • Week 8: 40 cases
  • Week 9: 22 cases
  • Week 10: 6 cases
In 2014 we seem to be right in amongst that now as we (in Australia) see out Week 49..

  • Week 45: 6 cases
  • Week 46: 26 cases
  • Week 4733 cases
  • Week 48: 12 cases
  • Week 49: 17 cases
We are still seeing a few cases with illness onset in Week 47 (6-Jan to 12-Jan) so tat could yet reach Week 8's levels, or more unless the market closure start to show an impact soon.

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