Thursday 23 January 2014

H7N9 snapdate: cases per week and cumulative cases

Click on image to enlarge.
This "snap update" is about the H7N9 epidemic curve. It reveals that the second wave of H7N9 human cases are really piling up this winter. As I sit here at 9:30pm (7:30pm in Shenzen), I've just added another 7 from Zhejiang (n=5), Shanghai (n=1) and Guangdong province (n=1) for today. 

It's also worth noting that we did not know of H7N9 in humans this time last year; we are still a few weeks away from the 1st anniversary of H7N9's discovery. WHO was notified 31-March-2013, but onset of first illness due to H7N9 was 18-Feb-2013). Its case numbers suggest a slow rise compared to a seasonal human influenza epidemic (H1N1 or H3N2 viruses for example), but it is a rapid rate for an avian flu in humans.

Tallies have hit 25, 26, 7 and 12 cases (=70 so far) per week for the past 4-weeks (beginning 30-Dec, 6-Jan, 13-Jan and 20-Jan respectively). These tallies will change if/as new case announcements continue and are assigned to dates of onset that sit in among these weeks.

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